AI Winter Thaw: Strategic Capital Recalibration Underway
OVERVIEW After two years of AI hype and market correction, venture capital is consolidating around defensible infrastructure and enterprise adoption. Fund dry powder remains robust ($650B+ globally), but deployment is disciplined—fewer, larger checks to proven teams with revenue traction. The era of idea-stage funding has definitively ended. KEY SIGNALS Series A median rounds have contracted 15% YoY while Series C+ funding to profitable-path companies grew 23%. Secondary market activity spiked—existing investors liquidating overvalued stakes. Geographic rotation: capital concentrating in NYC, SF, and emerging Asia hubs. Founder-friendly terms vanishing; 1x liquidation preferences and board control now standard. WHAT TO WATCH Monitor Q2 fund closes—expect 30-40% fewer new vehicles. Track Series A drought: underfunded companies at 18-month runways seeking acqui-hires. Watch for family office and strategic corporate VC consolidation of market share. For operators: angel networks and rolling funds becoming the true early-stage capital source.
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